Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze century-long ERA-20C reanalysis ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish are, some regions, significantly correlated anti-correlated heat waves. The hindcasts however only partly able capture relationships. There do not seem be significant changes observed links between large-scale circulation temperatures higher lower